石油巨頭一直在創(chuàng)造創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高利潤，但這并沒有改變它們的資本紀(jì)律，因為它們正在為下一次油價暴跌做好準(zhǔn)備

標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的能源板塊自今年年初以來已經(jīng)下跌5%，反映出人們對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退將拉低油價的擔(dān)憂

運營成本上升、利率上升以及石油和天然氣價格下跌等因素表明，石油巨頭的好時光或?qū)⒑芸炀鸵Y(jié)束

【資料圖】

中國石化新聞網(wǎng)訊 據(jù)油價網(wǎng)2023年5月9日報道，石油巨頭從去年的能源危機(jī)中賺取的巨額現(xiàn)金已成為傳奇故事。

無論是用暴利稅來威脅石油行業(yè)，還是被活動人士用來給已經(jīng)被妖魔化的石油行業(yè)形象增添更多細(xì)節(jié)，這樣的武器都不再特別奏效。

與此同時，石油行業(yè)一直保持低調(diào)，降低了資本支出。由于油氣公司尋求為下一次價格暴跌做好準(zhǔn)備，資本自律的趨勢似乎已在油氣行業(yè)中根深蒂固。

《華爾街日報》本周報道稱，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)中最大的7家油氣公司的現(xiàn)金總額已超過800億美元。僅埃克森美孚公司一家公司的現(xiàn)金儲備就接近300億美元。雪佛龍公司的現(xiàn)金儲備超過156億美元。石油巨頭中規(guī)模最小的依歐格資源公司也擁有超過50億美元的現(xiàn)金儲備。

“石油巨頭一直在分紅。這是一個標(biāo)志，”能源投資公司Tortoise的董事總經(jīng)理Rob Thummel如是告訴《華爾街日報》記者，“但現(xiàn)在除了股息，還有多余的現(xiàn)金可以用來回購股票。”

這就是過去幾年，尤其是去年，能源股保持高位的原因。投資者可能越來越關(guān)注氣候變化，但當(dāng)他們看到回報時，他們?nèi)匀豢梢砸庾R到這才是“真實回報”。他們在能源股中看到了這一點。

另一方面，這些能源股的發(fā)行商知道，正如雪佛龍公司首席財務(wù)官皮埃爾·布雷伯所說，“石油巨頭的好時光不會長久，它們正在儲備現(xiàn)金，以備當(dāng)前的好時光結(jié)束。好時光結(jié)束的時間可能比預(yù)期的要早。 ”

英國《金融時報》在最近的一份報告中指出，自今年年初以來，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的能源板塊下跌了5%，而整體指數(shù)上漲了8%。油價在一個月內(nèi)每桶下跌了約10美元。對經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的恐懼情緒高漲，這對能源股造成了傷害，而這些股票即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的時候也能帶來一定的回報。

在某種程度上，這種情況有點荒謬，正如美國能源咨詢和分析公司PetroNerds首席執(zhí)行官特里莎·柯蒂斯所描述的那樣，“這些石油巨頭在虧損的時候股價很高”。柯蒂斯對英國《金融時報》表示，“現(xiàn)在石油巨頭賺了大錢，卻得不到回報。”

據(jù)一些人說，人們擔(dān)心隨著油價下跌，能源公司將開始削減股息，其中一些公司的股息是可變的。似乎并非所有投資者都對此感到高興。但是，在大型石油公司和小型石油公司也現(xiàn)金充裕之際，對能源股的懷疑還有一個更大的因素。

達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行第一季度能源調(diào)查的一位受訪者在評論部分表示：“據(jù)估計，油田作業(yè)成本增加了30%～40%，借款利息費用也增加了，天然氣價格急劇下跌，加上原油價格下跌，導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)金流明顯減少。”

同一位受訪者表示：“外部投資者似乎對碳?xì)浠衔锸チ伺d趣并指出全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和地緣政治前景的不確定性。我們預(yù)計，在一個周期性的行業(yè)中，會有另一個‘混過去’的時期，更多的參與者將被淘汰。”

英國《金融時報》援引的美國能源信息署（EIA）公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，除了成本上漲和油井生產(chǎn)率下降外，聲譽因素似乎比以往任何時候都更重要。達(dá)拉斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行調(diào)查的受訪者表示，外部投資者正在對石油和天然氣失去興趣。PetroNerds的柯蒂斯表示：“市場和投資者仍然對石油和天然氣感到不安。這些公司的價值并沒有按照它們的資產(chǎn)或它們的產(chǎn)品來計算。”

在這樣的背景下，至少在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景變得更加明朗之前，沒有什么比讓股息保持接近、現(xiàn)金儲備保持更接近更有意義的了。

李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Majors Are Preparing For A Difficult Period

· The oil majors have been making record-high profits, but that hasn’t altered their capital discipline as they prepare for the next oil price rout.

· The energy segment of the S&P 500 has shed 5% since the start of the year, reflecting a fear that a recession will drive oil prices lower.

· The combination of higher operating costs, increased interest rates, and a drop in both oil and gas prices suggests the good times may soon be at an end.

The piles of cash Big Oil made from last year"s energy crunch have become the stuff of legend. They have also become a weapon in the hands of governments that like to have a scapegoat handy.

The weapon hasn"t been particularly effective, whether used to threaten the oil industry with windfall profit taxes or deployed by activists to add more detail to the already demonized image of the industry.

The industry, meanwhile, has kept its head down and its capital spending lower. The capital discipline trend appears to have become entrenched in oil and gas as companies seek to be prepared for the next price rout.

The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the seven largest oil and gas companies on the S&P 500 have accumulated a combined cash amount topping $80 billion. Exxon alone has a cash stash of close to $30 billion. Chevron has over $15.6 billion. EOG, the smallest among the big, has over $5 billion. And they are keeping it.

"They"ve paid dividends forever. That"s been a hallmark," Rob Thummel, managing director at energy investment firm Tortoise, told the WSJ. "But now there"s excess cash beyond dividends to do buybacks."

That"s what"s helped keep energy stocks high in the past couple of years and especially last year. Investors may be getting more climate-conscious, but they can still recognize a return when they see it. And they see it in energy stocks.

The issuers of those energy stocks, on the other hand, know that, as Chevron"s CFO Pierre Breber put it, "good times don"t last" and are conserving cash for when the current crop of good times ends. Which might be sooner than expected.

The energy segment of the S&P 500 has shed 5% since the start of the year while the broader index has added 8%, the Financial Times noted in a recent report. Oil prices have dropped by some $10 per barrel over a month. Fear of recession is running high and hurting energy stocks—those same stocks that carry with them the promise of certain returns, even in bad times.

In a way, the situation is kind of absurd, as described by PetroNerds" chief executive Trisha Curtis: "These companies had high share prices when they were losing money," Curtis told the FT. "Now they are making money hand over fist and not being rewarded."

According to some, there is concern that with lower oil prices, energy companies will start cutting their dividend—those of them that have made said dividend variable. It seems not all investors are happy about it. But there is a bigger factor for the energy stock skepticism that is emerging at a time when Big Oil and smaller operators too are flush with cash.

"An estimated 30–40 percent cost increase in field operations, increased interest charges on borrowed money, a drastic collapse in natural gas prices combined with lower crude oil prices produced a noticeable lower cash flow," one respondent to the Q1 Dallas Fed Energy Survey said in the comments section.

"Outside investors seem to be losing interest in hydrocarbons," the same respondent said, also noting the uncertain outlook on the global economy and geopolitics. "We expect another "muddle through" period in a cyclical business where more players will be winnowed out."

Besides cost inflation and lower well productivity, according to EIA data cited by the FT, the reputational factor appears to be stronger than ever. According to that Dallas Fed Survey respondent, outside investors are losing interest in oil and gas. According to PetroNerds"s Curtis, "The market and investors are still uncomfortable with oil and gas. The companies are not being valued to their assets or what they"re producing."

In a context like this, there is little that makes as much sense as keeping your dividends close and your cash pile closer, at least until some more clarity emerges about the future of the U.S. economy and the wider world.

（責(zé)任編輯：黃振 審核：蔣文娟 ）

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